Friday, June 15, 2007

S&P futures vs fair value: +10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.0.

Futures trade spikes higher following encouraging economic data, pointing to an even stronger start for stocks. Total CPI rose 0.7% (consensus 0.6%) in May but the more closely-watched core rate rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.2%). That pushes the year/year rate down to 2.2%, which is closer to the Fed's "comfort zone" and will at worst keep policy makers on hold with any tightening efforts for the time being. The NY Empire State Index rose to a surprisingly strong 25.8 in June (consensus 12.0) from 8.0 in May. Bonds have also improved in response to the data; the 10-year note is now up 7 ticks to yield 5.19%.

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